The [ppm] eyrie

June 2, 2009

Update on tactics

Filed under: PPM.statistics — glanvalleyeaglets @ 11:56 am

Half of the first regular PPM season is over, the games of the last 19-th round were played yesterday, so this seems to be a good time to update the tactical tables. I have added data from a few Slovak and Czech leagues; of course, the 21 top German leagues are still in the data pool. The total number of games included in these statistics is close to 3 countries times 21 leagues times 10 games times 19 rounds, which amounts to 11970 games. It is over ten thousand, mind you! The reader is encouraged to check the results as I am not a machine and as this would give him an idea about how it is to click through 10k game reports!

The reward is more data and more insight in the performance of less frequently applied tactics, such as Defensive versus Breaking (which is the smallest sample with 183 played games).

So, here we go:

D/SK/CZ Normal Defensive Offensive Counteratt Breaking Forecheck
Normal XX-XX-XX 315-69-167 481-151-545 418-129-404 233-80-430 519-154-446
Defensive 167-69-315 XX-XX-XX 178-48-109 122-43-95 82-25-76 132-51-119
Offensive 545-151-481 109-48-178 XX-XX-XX 238-66-215 141-59-153 398-87-140
Counteratt 404-129-418 95-43-122 215-66-238 XX-XX-XX 163-28-66 133-54-251
Breaking 430-80-233 76-25-82 153-59-141 66-28-163 XX-XX-XX 121-39-133
Forecheck 446-154-519 119-51-132 140-87-398 251-54-133 133-39-121 XX-XX-XX

The same table showing percentage of wins, overtimes and losses (row vs column):

D/SK/CZ Normal Defensive Offensive Counteratt Breaking Forecheck
Normal XX-XX-XX 57-13-30 41-13-46 44-14-43 31-11-58 46-14-40
Defensive 30-13-57 XX-XX-XX 53-14-33 47-17-37 45-14-42 44-17-39
Offensive 46-13-41 33-14-53 XX-XX-XX 46-13-41 40-17-43 64-14-22
Counteratt 42-14-44 37-17-47 41-13-46 XX-XX-XX 63-11-26 30-12-57
Breaking 58-11-31 42-14-45 43-17-40 26-11-63 XX-XX-XX 41-13-45
Forecheck 40-14-46 39-17-44 22-14-64 57-12-30 45-13-41 XX-XX-XX

It seams that the primary ring of tactics-countertactics looks as follows.

* Normal beats Defensive
* Defensive beats Offensive
* Offensive beats Forechecking
* Forechecking beats Counterattacks
* Counterattacks beats Breaking
* Breaking beats normal

Beautiful ring of countertactics, isn’t it? Reminds me of Ouroboros, the famous serpent that bites into its own tail 🙂

Let me quote the PPM Guide once more. It says,

“Finding the right style of play helps you achieve better results. Try finding the right style for your players. You can select from mutliple options. It is up to you, whether you choose to play offensively, defensively, counterattacks or you choose other option on this page. There are two things to remember. First: For every style of play there is an effective counter-play, which can give an advantage to the team that uses it. Second: Every team has a different composition of player attributes and therefore a different style of play is suitable for each team. Therefore you need to find the right style of play that suits your team. A different style of play is suitable for a team with a weak goalie and brilliant forwards and vice versa for a team with a goalie star.”

I firmly believe that the ring of counter-tactics, at least the dominant ring of first 19 rounds, has been identified in the current research project and related efforts. There is no guarantee that this ring won`t change with time (it only takes a small tweak in the game engine), and, of course, the tactics is just one facet of this complex game – still in some cases, choosing the right tactics can make the difference between three points and zero.

Concerning identification of the best-suited tactics for a team with given player skills distribution, this seems to be more difficult issue to investigate. One reason is that currently most teams are still pretty equal in skills. Furthermore, brute-force approaches involving gathering a huge mass of data and extracting some more or less valuable information are effectively prohibited by the makers of PPM, for the skills of players from other teams are only visible after scouting. What can I say, keep investigating this by yourself and stay tuned!

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4 Comments »

  1. Fast 12k Spiele? Ich glaube du hast zu viel Freizeit 😀 ich habe knapp über 1.100 bisher. Meine Ergebnisse sind ziemlich ähnlich. Ich lasse aber Spiele mit Noname-Beteiligung aus, genau wie Mannschafften, die nur auf Hoch spielen und mittlerweile keine Chance mehr haben. Meine untersuchten Ligen sind: D II.3, D I.1, SK I.1, CZ I.1, CH I.1, A I.1

    Und verspätete Glückwunsch zur Herbstmeisterschaft =) habe ich auch errungen

    Comment by Nachtspieltag — June 16, 2009 @ 9:53 am

    • Danke,

      der Aufwand liegt etwa bei einer Stunde per Spieltag. Alles was darüber liegt, würde ich nie alleine anpacken 🙂

      Auch Dir gratuliere ich gerne zu Deiner HM! Viel Spass noch beim Spiel und Leben und man sieht sich!

      Comment by glanvalleyeaglets — June 16, 2009 @ 3:05 pm

  2. […] The results have been compiled from games played in some German, Slovak, Czech and Latvian leagues in game days 22 through 38 (the games with participation of noname teams have been excluded), so all from the second round. Hence, this summary does not include any games used in this previous study. […]

    Pingback by Tactics Check XL « The [ppm] eyrie — July 16, 2009 @ 8:31 am

  3. […] the top of this we clearly see the famous ring of countertactics in […]

    Pingback by Tactics and home ice advantage « The [ppm] eyrie — September 16, 2009 @ 11:14 am


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