The [ppm] eyrie

July 9, 2009

Game importance revisited

Filed under: PPM.statistics — glanvalleyeaglets @ 8:02 am

In a previous posting I had published some data that suggest a very minor impact of game importance on the final result. There was this feeling that playing with higher importance was as “D&G” – expensive and stupid (Dorogo & Glupo as they say). Now this is not the whole truth. Taking a bigger sample of match reports from League match days 1 through 4, this is what came out.

Low vs Normal
Sample size: 700 games
Result in percents: 41.1 – 11.2 – 47.5
Average result (goals): 3.71 – 3.96
Average shots per game: 25.4 – 28.9
Average penalties in minutes: 2.54 – 4.44

Low vs High
Sample size: 88 games
Result in percents: 35.2 – 10.2 – 54.5
Average result (goals): 3.15 – 4.07
Average shots: 22.4 – 30.0
Average penalties in minutes: 2.65 – 4.36

Normal vs High
Sample size: 1978 games
Result in percents: 41.9 – 14.0 – 44.0
Average result (goals): 3.88 – 3.89
Average shots: 26.2 – 28.5
Average penalties in minutes: 2.67 – 4.35

So we see that the team playing the higher importance has a slight but firm advantage in the games in spite of more time spent in the cooler. In a sharp contrast to this, the following are results from the second round (match days 22 thru 35).

Low vs Normal
Sample size: 2649 games
Result in percents: 51.0 – 12.1 – 36.7
Average result (goals): 4.00 – 3.42
Average shots per game: 26.6 – 27.4
Average penalties in minutes: 2.43 – 4.61

Low vs High
Sample size: 582 games
Result in percents: 74.3 – 7.2 – 18.3
Average result (goals): 5.42 – 2.56
Average shots per game: 28.9 – 24.1
Average penalties in minutes: 1.85 – 5.12

Normal vs High
Sample size: 5188 games
Result in percents: 71.4 – 8.4 – 20.0
Average result (goals): 5.27 – 2.69
Average shots per game: 29.7 – 23.2
Average penalties in minutes: 2.14 – 4.84

Actually that’s it for today. The figures here seem to say more than thousand words. Ok, I’ll write the essence of this all anyway: High importance should be used only a few times in a season. Misuse shall be punished by the game engine.

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1 Comment »

  1. […] important factors are game importance and seasonal energy – this has been documented in another article. The chemistry of the lines is a big deal too, and as the experience of the best players increases […]

    Pingback by Tactics Check XL « The [ppm] eyrie — July 16, 2009 @ 8:31 am


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